38 Degrees Logo38 Degrees Logo 38 Degrees Logo

Hung Parliament: The Facts

May 4th, 2010 by

Over the past week, 38 Degrees members have been working together to make a factsheet that sets the story straight about what a hung parliament would mean.  Here it is:

38 Degrees Hung Parliament Factsheet

What’s this factsheet for?

There are a lot of scare stories in the press at the moment about what a hung parliament would mean. Nearly 90% of 38 Degrees members said last month that they thought it offered a real chance to change politics for the better. That’s why we’re working together to set the story straight.

Who made this factsheet?

38 Degees members from across the UK came together last week to make this factsheet to bust some of the the main myths and scare stories about a hung parliament.

What is a hung parliament?

A hung parliament means that no one political party wins the election outright. Instead, parties have to work together to get things done in a coalition government. Many people think that the name ‘hung parliament’ is too negative. A alternative name is “balanced parliament”.


The Scare Stories

1. A hung parliament means weak and ineffective government.

38 Degrees members said: This isn’t true. There are examples of coalition governments working well all over the world, from Germany and New Zealand to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly in the UK. We won the Second World War under a coalition government.

2. A hung parliament would mean no decisive action to secure our economic recovery.

38 Degrees members said: Again, this is not true. The evidence shows that coalition governments are better at ensuring financial recovery. A recent study from the House of Commons showed that 7 out of 10 of the largest fiscal consolidations (that means reductions in government debt) in OECD member countries since 1970 have been carried out under coalition governments. [1]

Business leaders agree. The Director-General of one of the biggest business lobby groups in the UK has said that a coalition government could ‘work well’, and even be stronger than a government with one party in charge. [2]

3: Markets would react badly to a hung parliament, meaning economic disaster for the UK.

38 Degrees members said: The markets aren’t worried about the idea of a hung parliament. Moody’s, a leading credit agency, has said that a hung parliament could be ‘quite positive’. [3]

Investment bank Goldman Sachs says that investors “have become a lot more comfortable” with the idea that no one party may have a clear majority. [4]

4: The Liberal Democrats aren’t a credible party to be part of a coalition in charge of the country.

38 Degrees members said: A recent poll showed that if voters thought the Lib Dems had a chance at power, nearly half of them would vote Lib Dem at the general election.[5]

If many people in the UK vote for the Lib Dems in this year’s election, it’s fair that they should be involved. It would also send an important signal to Labour and the Conservatives that reform is needed at Westminster.

5: If there’s a hung parliament the party with the majority will just call another election in 6 months and we’ll have to do it all again.

38 Degrees members said: There’s a risk that a coalition government might call another election, but that’s a risk with all types of government. A hung parliament could mean we get political reform which would make governments more accountable to us – like fixed term Parliaments.


The Positive Case

It’s important to put forward the positive case for a hung parliament, too. Here are some of the key reasons why a hung parliament could be a good thing.

1. A hung parliament means more representative government.

Our first-past-the-post voting system means that at the moment we have a government that only won 35% of the vote. A hung, or balanced Parliament will better represent what the voters want, and will force MPs to the more thoughtful of and responsive to public opinion.

2. A hung parliament could mean reform of the voting system.

As a condition of forming part of the governing coalition, the Liberal Democrats could demand a reform of our voting system – like introducing proportional representation. This means that a hung parliament could result in vital changes to make our voting system fairer.

3. A hung parliament means people getting interested about politics again.

A parliament where there is real debate on real issues, where power is still ‘up for grabs’, will encourage people to get involved in the political process, because they feel that they can have a say in parliamentary decisions. If one party simply ‘wins’ and starts running the country on its own, many people will feel that their voices are not being heard, and they will lose interest.

[1] http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/03/dont-be-afraid-of-hung-parliament

[2] http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7107223.ece

[3] http://www.tdwaterhouse.co.uk/news/newsitem.cfm?newsid=429599

[4] http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/62581,business,uk-gdp-up-as-goldman-sachs-votes-for-hung-parliament-buy-pound-sell-euro

[5] http://today.yougov.co.uk/commentaries/peter-kellner/could-lib-dems-win-outright

Posted in 38 Degrees Blog Posts

Tags: ,

  • Andrew Woods

    Got a mailshot from you guys today talking about how 38 Degrees are fighting the media bias. Do you realise how hypocritical it is for you to blame others for a bias and then do what you can to stand against one party, align to one newspaper and presents the 'facts' about hung parliaments by comparing ours to countries like New Zealand, which, incidentally, is considering becoming an Australian state!

    There's an interesting parallel between this site and the Liberal Democrats:

    They are presenting themselves as a new voice in our political system, a change from all of the politicians we've had before.

    You present yourself as a change from the biased media, giving us facts not opinion.

    Both of you are just more of the same, with your own agenda and opinions that you try to affect on people. All of that is understandable so be honest, stop trying to pretend you're something different, it's just another insult to the people of this country.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Eenbal Iain Pearce

    Useful info.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Eenbal Iain Pearce

    I agree with what you said about being pro Lib Dem, But is it possible that 38deg supporters maybe Lib Dem supporters because they want change, and that if another party offered better/more changes that they would change the way they vote?
    How many of the national newspapers have been pro Lib Dem consistantly over the years? Maybe the playing field is being leveled?

  • Andrew Woods

    The site, it's member, the papers are all free to support whoever they like. It just leaves a bad taste when someone comes out campaigning against bias when they are quite obviously biased.

    We should be looking at policy, not this fanciful idea that a vote for the Liberals will change the mechanics of a politicians mind.

  • jer

    I also agree. I found the fact sheet useful and informative but the bias is obvious.

  • http://worldofwad.com David Waddell

    There is certainly an important debate on this issue, but it seems 38 degrees is mischaracterising the views of others as bias. We all have a bias. There is no such thing as true objectivity. 38 degrees is biased too. Where is the balance in your article. Where was Israel or Italy mentioned in your example of states where 'balanced' parliaments are common?

  • A.rafeh

    Can one tell me where exactly the three party's stand on Israel/Palestine issue?
    Thanks

  • johnnychatterton

    Hi Andrew, thanks for your comment.

    38 Degrees is independent of all political parties and we're not tied to one paper as you say. We sent that email to encourage people to vote and to give them a variety of resources to look at if they haven't decided how to vote yet. We did link to the Mirror because they have a guide on what to do if you don't want the tories to get in but we also linked to 3 other resources including Votematch an voteforchage, to help people decide how to vote. Some people have found the Mirror factsheet helpful.

    About the “hung parliament factsheet” – 38 Degrees members from across the country came together to produce this blog post as a resource to counter some of the myths that some newspapers and interest groups are promoting about a hung parliament. It has lots of facts in it and counters lots of the myths that newspapers that support one political party are publishing. 38 Degrees members made it using a google doc, so thousands of people could collaborate at once.

    Thanks for your questions about 38 Degrees. We are honest about what 38 Degrees is, it's a movement of people across the UK that helps people take action on issues they care about. Today, thousands of 38 Degrees member are encouraging their friends and neighbors to vote in the election tomorrow. 38 Degrees is driven by it's members, together we decide what we should campaign on, together You can find out more in the about section here: http://38degrees.org.uk/pages/about/

  • http://noodlemaz.wordpress.com Noodlemaz

    My flatmate (law graduate) feels the economic instability argument may hold weight in terms of foreign/worldwide investors lacking confidence in this instance:

    'I'm actually in favour of coalition governments in general, but the problem is that the current UK system isn't designed for it. If we had true electoral reform, I'd wholeheartedly support a coalition government!
    Where there hasn't been a hung Parliament in the UK since 1974 (and look how *that* turned out), my concern is that a lot of international bodies and investors would run scared until things had sorted themselves out, which could do a lot of damage to the economy.
    I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but I think it's a risk, and I've been trying to decide if it's a risk worth taking!'

    Thanks.

  • johnnychatterton

    Thanks for letting us know jer!

  • Tricia

    In my view the LibDems offer the best hope for justice in Palestine, followed by Labour. Too many Conservative MPs belong to Conservative Friends of Israel.

  • Arafeh

    Many thanks, that's what I thougt.

  • harriroberts

    The hung parliaments of the '60's and '70's were characterised by deals behind closed doors – that is the real danger. But consider the Welsh assembly as a shining example of open government by agreement – the “one Wales” document is published stating clearly the policy points on whih Plaid Cymru and the Labour PArty agree, along with another public document stating how disputes between the parties would be resolved.

    This has given Walesa stable, and very succesful administration for three years – and will continue to do so until the (fixed term) elections in 2011.

    That's how to make it work!

  • http://twitter.com/JWC28 Jack Chamberlain

    Nice article, some good information. But as others have said, it is biased. For example, where is the Negative Case regarding a hung parliament? This would have provided a more well rounded article – allowing us to make a decision for ourselves, instead of coming across as a persuasive piece about voting LibDem.

  • eenbal

    A good point. I had not noticed the bias until this post though.
    I think it would be nice to have a 'go compare' style site where you could see the The parties policies next to each other in colums. But maybe thats just me being lazy.

  • Andrew Woods

    You didn't answer the question, you gave an opinion. The main parties haven't made mention of the issue because the UK has little if any influence on the conflict. We are moving away from an alliance with the US, the only nation that can genuinely affect Israeli opinion.

  • http://worldofwad.com David Waddell

    Try the BBC's compare policies site: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election…

    And check out my own blog for all the main manifestos:
    http://waddell.wordpress.com/2010/05/03/a-cruci…

  • Ben Clark

    You can compare all party policies side by side on this page of the BBC website – http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election…

  • davidradlett

    How do you address the most important criticism of the idea of a coalition – “You could well have a … coalition govt where we were governed by people – by a govt – that nobody had voted for because they didn’t know the basis of the coalition on polling day, (Tony Benn HC debate on the Jenkins Report)“?

  • Roger Weston

    Very interesting article. I am in favour of a 'balance parliament'. But you appear to have missed the point that under the constitution in the event of a hung Parliament, Gordon Brown automatically returns as Prime Minister and has the first choice in trying to form a Government irrespective on which party has the most seats or the most votes.

  • sue

    you're all clearly pro LibDem, but I'm afraid – having almost been about to vote for them – Dulwich & West Norwood constituency – i've been shocked to find that they're putting out lies in their leaflets. they're claiming it's a 2 horse race between them and Labour, so don't vote Tory, whereas in fact, the clear leader is Labour with 40+% of vote, and the 2nd place goes to the Tories after the boundary changes, and 3rd place LibDem (both on 20-odd%). I hate these lies that Labour and LibDems are putting out. I'm not staunch Tory at all, but I back honesty.

  • Dai

    Here is one thing to consider but nobody does. How much actual support do you need to win an election. First past the post you only need one more vote than your nearest rival. So based on this one extra vote for each seat that the winning party gets how much actual support did they need to win the election. Remember we are only counting the one extra vote needed not the total support they had. When you put it in percentages what they actually won with to what they get in seats it really shows up the system and how screwed it is.

  • http://doodznchyx.wordpress.com/2010/05/05/parliament-hang-em-high/ Parliament? Hang ‘em high! « The Kewl Doodz ‘n’ Chyx

    [...] tells you who you should be voting for if you want a “balanced Parliament”. 38 Degrees discusses hung parliaments in an FAQ format. Charter 2010 weighs [...]

  • huwspanner

    Perhaps you could add that all our political parties are themselves de-facto coalitions, and which of the promises they have made in their manifestos would actually be fulfilled, and to what extent, would also be a matter of dealing behind closed doors. For example, Labour won the 1997 election on a manifesto that promised a referendum on electoral reform, but that promise was never kept – and we were never told why. The truth seems to be that some factions within the parliamentary Labour party blocked it. Likewise, the Tories now are running on a manifesto that promises action to prevent climate change – but many people suspect that if they got a majority in Parliament there would be heavy pressure from many of their MPs (again, “behind closed doors”) to abandon that promise. It is simply dishonest for the right-wing media to pretend that horse-trading happens only in a “hung” parliament.

  • huw spanner

    The idea that the party with the most votes has necessarily “won” the election is, to my mind, rather spurious. Imagine a situation where two left-of-centre parties attract c8 million votes each and a right-of-centre party attracts 13 million – how true would it be to say that a right-wing government would represent “the will of the people”? Sadly, that is what happened in Britain in 1983, when FPTP gave Margaret Thatcher the most decisive victory since Clement Attlee's in 1945. That was when Thatcherism really took hold, as her 144-seat majority encouraged her to govern this country as if the electorate really had expressed a preference for her policies. Clearly, most of the voters did *not* want even the mild form of Thatcherism they had experienced in 1979-1983, and a more representative electoral system would have spared us any more of it.

  • Michael North

    A hung parliament might, just might provide us with the only opportunity we may have for generations to sweep away the old, discredited, first past the post system, and give this country genuine democracy for the first time.

  • Iain

    cheers for the link. i used http://www.votematch.org.uk/

  • http://www.admin.ch/index.html?lang=en JDK

    Here in Switzerland there is always a hung parliament. The system is arranged that way. So is the “magic formula” which decides which parties can be represented in the Bundesrat (cabinet). A rotating presidency, 2 equal influence houses of parliament and direct democracy. I don't see anyone arguing Switzerland is not economically sound.

  • http://twitter.com/ashgiles1 Ashley Giles

    Although i'd prefer a Labour majority government, a hung parliament would be good for change and reform

  • http://www.demsoc.org/talkissues/2010/05/05/still-cant-decide/ Still can’t decide? « Talk Issues

    [...] A factsheet from campaigning group 38 Degrees supporting a hung parliament [...]

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=716486463 facebook-716486463

    Thanks be to 38 degrees and all they do to make UK politic transparent and make lads in charge acocuntable to the public when there are so many vested interests who want to subjugate masses and thwart thier aspirations for peace,justice,freedoms and equity at home and abroad.

  • phillipjohnstephens

    A hung Parliament is reflective of a general lack of interest in the political process, which, in its present state, is not reflective of a truly democratic system anyway. If you really want to transform the political process in this country, do as Australia does, and make it a legally enforceable duty of citizenship for people to vote in national elections. The other area that needs greater scrutiny is the potential for false registration of postal votes.

  • kathryncann

    Thanks for this, it is a very helpful guide which I have retweeted to my followers.

    The most important thing for me is reform of the voting system.

    http://www.miscellani.org/blog/2010/05/im-votin…

  • Tulum

    Hi Johnny,

    I can't see what Andy's written (with respect “hung parliament factsheet”) to but I suspect it had a lot in common with what I was thinking when I finished reading the Factsheet.

    This is what the Factsheet does:
    1. Present a view (the “myth”)
    2. Present a counter-argument (“38 degrees members said”). There is a fact or two used to back it up.
    Etc…

    That's more of an 'Argumentsheet” really, isn't it? Now there's nothing wrong with having one of those. But I'm left feeling unaswaged after reading the title. It clearly comes across that there are some pre-assumed views behind the information presented, like PR being better than the FPTP electoral system. Now don't get me wrong, it seems that those values are mostly ones that I share and I'm not particularly decided on the PR issue. But it kind of defeats the point of a 'factsheet' doesn't it?
    The most important reason I bring this up is that I've seen the same thing in far-right literature, where facts are blended with opinion (albeit with much, much more of the latter) under the guise of 'All fact'. I'm not saying this is quite as bad as that, but it deserves to be above that game.

    Do you see what I'm saying? The Factsheet above is still a good effort overall and safe to you for being part of it.

  • johnnychatterton

    Hi Tulum, thanks for this. Not sure what happened to andews comments. I think that's a really good point and maybe we should have called it “Mythbusting” instead.

  • johnnychatterton

    Hi Kathryn, sign the “voting reform now” petition at http://labs.38degrees.org.uk/wall/reform

  • Tulum

    Hi Johnny,

    I can't see what Andy's written (with respect “hung parliament factsheet”) to but I suspect it had a lot in common with what I was thinking when I finished reading the Factsheet.

    This is what the Factsheet does:
    1. Present a view (the “myth”)
    2. Present a counter-argument (“38 degrees members said”). There is a fact or two used to back it up.
    Etc…

    That's more of an 'Argumentsheet” really, isn't it? Now there's nothing wrong with having one of those. But I'm left feeling unaswaged after reading the title. It clearly comes across that there are some pre-assumed views behind the information presented, like PR being better than the FPTP electoral system. Now don't get me wrong, it seems that those values are mostly ones that I share and I'm not particularly decided on the PR issue. But it kind of defeats the point of a 'factsheet' doesn't it?
    The most important reason I bring this up is that I've seen the same thing in far-right literature, where facts are blended with opinion (albeit with much, much more of the latter) under the guise of 'All fact'. I'm not saying this is quite as bad as that, but it deserves to be above that game.

    Do you see what I'm saying? The Factsheet above is still a good effort overall and safe to you for being part of it.

  • johnnychatterton

    Hi Tulum, thanks for this. Not sure what happened to andews comments. I think that's a really good point and maybe we should have called it “Mythbusting” instead.

  • johnnychatterton

    Hi Kathryn, sign the “voting reform now” petition at http://labs.38degrees.org.uk/wall/reform